May 02 2006
Study Notes: The China Circle
Book: The China Circle, edited by Barry Naughton
China Circle firms are all located in a common economic region that has been divided by political boundaries.
The emergence of China Circle cannot be understood without reference to these external changes (technologies, markets and competitive conditions, etc.)
Hong Kong is the linchpin.
Three ways to look at the circle: HK only, HK-TW-FJ-GD, 2nd+The Rest of China+SK+JP
IMF data:
It now accounts for about 40 percent of all foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into emerging market economies in Asia (including FDI flowing between Asian economies). On the flip side, Japan and the emerging market economies of Asia together now account for more than two-thirds of China’s FDI inflows. This share remains well over half, even if one excludes a significant share of flows from Hong Kong SAR
In 1994, exports were 106% of GDP for GD.
Why collapse of commodity price during the 1980s?
The catalyst: Plaza Accord in 1985, low wage and land rent in China, low transaction cost (?)
Over 70% of FDI from HK/TW
P11: export growth numbers.
HK industrial labor force declined from .93m in 1985 to .386m in 1995. Taiwan from 2.8m to 2.4m. Growth in GD, FJ p13
HK and TW successfully restructured industries: HK to finance, transport and telecomm, TW: upgrading of skills.
US and Japan started with investment in import substitution industris destined for the Chinese Market (?)
The convergence of HK/TW and US/JP investment types after 1992. The former into market-focused the latter production-focused.
Politics and economics are intertwined everywhere in the CHina Circle (but the interaction does not have a simple template)
Small firms in China Circle vs JP/SK model, fluid. Open import (vs Japan’s intra-firm import)
Taiwan’s small, quick turnaround model vs. Korean chaebol (p21-22)
High tech production/market favors China Circle (i.e. Taiwan), e.g. ASIC p23
China Circle’s dependency on Japan p24
Chinese IC industry struggle: 10 years without shortening distance from TW and others. P26