Nov 09 2006
Some thoughts on the Current Iraqi Mess
It was said Colin Powell warned GWB before the 2003 invasion: if you break it, you have to fix it. I did not realize how right he was.
My friend, Arif, told me a while ago that the war upset a long-held equilibrium between Sunni and Shia powers in the region. I did not realize how important this point was.
I always thought Iran was the more menacing force in the region: if Sadam is a barking pet dog, Iran is one of those animals who wear flagrant colors but is poisonous. This New Yorker article confirms that: “dragging Iran into conflict with the United States is key to Al Qaeda’s strategy … Iran is preparing to retaliate for or abort this strike by means of using powerful cards in its hand”–namely, Hezbollah, its sympathizers across the globe and all the oil fields in the region.
Whatever Zionist motivation there was in the 2003 Iraq War, Israel’s concern over Iranian nuclear development is legitimate: because the nukes are not merely weapons but also “tension amplifier” in global affairs. It is not their actual usage, but the threat of it that is the root of the problem. Yet neither Israel or the U.S. has any credit/resource left to agitate for a case against Iran.
I only wish there is a conventional war break out in the Middle East before the Iranians got their nukes ready. The blood letting will release some of the tension.