Sep 30 2005
Economic Development and Democracy
Foreign Affairs article(c). Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and George W. Downs
Quotes
“Economic growth, rather than being a force for democratic change in tyrannical states, can sometimes be used to strengthen oppressive regimes.”
Idea: “World Bank should reconsider the kinds of conditions they attch to their loans”
—Only if the loans are so desperately needed as the regime would rather put their own lives on the line?
Rationale: “Economic growth … raises the stakes of the political game by increasing the spoils available to the winner, and it leads to an increase in the number of individuals … get involved in politics.”
Term from political science “strategic coordination”—the set of activities that people must engage in to win political power.
“If authoritarian incumbents can limit s.c. by the opposition … To remain secure, autocrats must raise the cost of political coordination among the opposition without also raising the cost of economic coordination too dramatically.”
Example: Chinese restrictions on Internet-related activities (see blog). Russian government total control of TV stations.
“Coodination goods are distinct from more general public goods—public transportation, health care, primary education, etc.”
The authors “examined the provision of public goods in about 150 countries between 1970 and 1999″, found 4 points:
1. The suppression of coordination goods is an effective survival strategy. Allowing freedom of the press and ensure civil liberties, … reduce the chances that an autocratic government will survive for another year by about 15-20%
2. Today’s autocrats tend to suppress coordination goods much more consistently than they do other public goods.
3. The greater the suppression of the coordination goods … the greater the lag between economic growth and the emergence of liberal democracy.
4. Except at the highest levels of per-capita income, significant economic growth can be attained and sustained even while the government suppresses coordination goods.
—Is this corelated to per-capita income or something else? e.g. type of economy (resource intensive vs. information intensive? or productivity related)
“China … is best viewed not as the exception to the rule that growth prodcues liberalization, but the emblematic of the fact that it usually does not.”