Years of Poems and Spirits

1. Demographics, social stratification, mobility study
TItle: Was There a REvolution? Kinship and Ineqaulity of the Very Long Term in Laio Ning
By Cameron Campbell (UCLA), James Lee (Michigan)
Based on Liaoning dataset, studied social stratification patterns in late Qing and post Reform contemporary. On going study (from a flyer in 2008, a coloquium missed), tentative conclusion.

Highlights:
Father-son attainment correlation
Kinship/descendent group vs. village
Education as a factor
Unique dataset!
China appeared to be a less aristocratic society then contemporary Europe/America (same authors 2003)

Also mentioned studies: Deng/Treiman (1997), Zhou, Moen and Tuma (1998), Cheng and Dai (1995)

2. Hiking: Bare Mountain
a. Long, arduous drive to trail head: poor road signs, unpaved gravel road full of potholes: need a high clearance vehicle!
b. Eye opening views:
The road largely circle around the back of Mt. Si, which has a stunning silver back don’t see from the highway
Clear-cut forests along the way: the road is largely a mix of logging/utility road
See the clear-cut area after coming out of dark forests felt like stambling upon an African Elephant grave–an eery sight indeed! A unmistakeable sense of death, an immense scene of ruin, an empty feeling of powerlessness and, seeing the new trees planted, a sense of renewal.
A beatiful day with a setting sun in a setting summer.
c. Quiet and cozy trail:
Met very few people, two of them met before on the street or on a different trail! Saw David and Lisa–met just last week in between Tuck and Robin Lakes. Their dogs (Buster and Sunny) gave them away. Both parties were flabbergasted. OMGs echoed all over the valley.
Dense foliage, should be fun during autumn.
d. Conclusion: feels like an newly made friend or an unexpected culinary discovery!

3. NYT article on low ROBC capital
Main Bank of China Is in Need of Capital
A poorly organized article that is undeserving NYT credential. Took me a while to figure out what it says:
PBOC forces commercial banks to turn in their forex reserves and used them to buy treasury and mortgage backed bonds.
As the MBB tanked, the return on those bonds probably wasn’t enough to meet PBOC’s interest obligation to the commercial banks lending those reserves to begin with.
This inbalance drained PBOC’s capital reserve to very low level.
Instead of printing money, PBOC chose to ask for government transfer/handout to sustain liquidity

Things noteworthy:
Different monetary/exchange philosophies b/w PBOC and MoF. PBOC against weak RMB but MoF favors.
PBOC prefer bonds vs. MoF stocks

Standard & Poor’s estimates China’s (mortgage) holdings at $340 billion

By buying United States bonds, the Chinese government has been investing a large chunk of the country’s savings in assets earning just 3 percent annually in dollars. And those low returns turn into real declines of about 10 percent a year after factoring in inflation and the yuan’s appreciation against the dollar.

The gap between what banks are paying on deposits and the rates they are charging ordinary customers to borrow is several percentage points. This amounts to a transfer of wealth from ordinary Chinese savers to the central bank and on to Americans who are selling their debt to the Chinese.

4. Also remembered an earlier NYT article about how China used its foreign reserve to shore up domestic banks:
$200 Billion to Invest, but in China

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