Jan 19 2010
On the Eve of MA Special Election
I try to make it a rule not to comment on day-to-day political grind. Since the partisan cacophony is like background noise, if you pay too close attention to it, you lose the big picture.
But I think tomorrow’s MA special election to fill Teddy Kennedy’s seat can be a monumental event. If Coakley loses, to me at least, it says volume about where this country is or where it is heading.
If that event did transpire, one can almost hear a loud, collective groan coming underneath Kennedy family’s cemetery. It is as if everything the Family from Joe on down has fought for–whether out of the pursuit of power or a sense of social justice–is gone now. Surveying what is left of the Kennedy brand, one can’t help but feel like watching the last whirlpool above the Titanic.
But the historical importance is even more grave. If media reports are to be believed, the prospect of losing the Kennedy seat was so unlikely just a few weeks ago, the Democrats in the Congress did not have a Plan B for Obama’s Health Care Bill. Without a Health Care Reform to write home about, the Democrats will certainly lose big again like it was 1994 all over. Not that I am a partisan Democrat. But the fact remains that, nowadays, the Democratic Party is the only political venue where disparate social factions can participate and play politics. The GOP is increasingly looking like a Nazi organization.
It is pretty sad that the great hope that came with Obama just a year ago is in such peril today: forget about the Financial Industry Reform, forget about holding people like John Yoo accountable, forget about Immigration Reform, forget about Climate Change, forget about all other things that excited the Progressives who thought eight-years of Bush-Cheney is in itself enough a reason to justify the Change. Everything yielded to Health Care Reform–the one thing that trumped them all. But that one thing is now hanging by a thread, tied up to the fate of a clueless woman whose name may be forever ill-remembered.
Obama failed history. He failed because he lacks a healthy dose of cynicism of the mass he presides over. More specifically, he failed because he chose to persuade people on Health Care instead of making a clear case for the cause and just push the legislation through.
First of all, health care – After closely following the debate for almost half of year, I have learned enough to draw the following conclusions:
1. The focus of health care reform must be on cost.
2. The biggest challenge to containing the cost issue is the fact the industry is not market-elastic, i.e. the cost curve does not respond to normal supply-demand. There are many reasons, employer paying health care being an prominent one.
3. Without a collective will (out of universal pain) to reform the industry, interest groups play out-sized role to maintain status quo. I am not talking about the insurance industry, but the physicians and the likes of AMA. To me, it is obvious that health care delivery is the biggest reason behind cost increase. If we are to reform health care, we must change how physicians are paid.
4. To restore market-elasticity, the only way to get physicians to change their ways is through a combination of assistance and threat of competition. While assistance may be easier to come by, the threat of competition will not be credible unless there is a large enough alternative that also offers an viable example as an optimal model.
5. I don’t believe anyone other than the Federal Government has the wherewithal to build such an alternative.
Secondly, once the goal is set, it takes two campaigns to realize it: a forceful voice, repeating the merits over and over and over until people take the assumptions as the Truth. Next it takes some professional politicking, LBJ style, to realize it. Instead, Obama chose the route of persuasion. He might think that he has the moral and rational high ground. But to a cynic like me, the truth remains:
1. Not everyone is willing to reason with you, especially if you are the ultimate trophy of the Yankees
2. Even among those who are willing, not everyone is capable of understanding such a complex issue
3. When they are not, people tend to fall back to what they WANT to believe, or not doing anything at all
Lastly, Americans, a rowdy bunch as any other, are nevertheless the quickest to turnaround when they see results.
The way as things stand is the opposite of all three-
I agree with critics who say the current health care bill will increase deficit and is not fiscally sustainable. Nor is there enough reforms in the bill that will show a road map to enlighten us how that is achievable. If we don’t have way to lower the cost but still holds on the universal coverage, the U.S. is heading towards what Japan is like today: perennial budget deficits and political stalemate.
In terms of communications, it is even worse. People on the street are as confused today as they were when the debate began. Not many person can agree on a clear statement of the goal, nor was there any headline-grabber to epitomize the whole bill.
Politically, it is no less a miserable affair. After several months’ debate and horse trading, not only the reforms are watered down, most importantly, the promise of a reform is diluted. And in the end, those who opposed Obama still do. As Lindsay Graham suggested, “anything but health care”.
Some news reports suggest that the Democrats will try to push the Health Care Bill through if Coakley lost. To me, it is the orchestra-on-deck moment. Obama somehow managed to lead the Democrats into a lose-lose situation: they are damned if they do push the bill through (lack of political legitimacy). And damned if they don’t.
As I said before, maybe Obama is not the right person to lead this country at this juncture. But I wouldn’t put the blame on him.