Archive for the 'to be refined' Category

Jul 20 2008

Reflexivity

Published by Forager under epistemology, to be refined

In sociology, reflexivity is an act of self-reference where examination or action ‘bends back on’, refers to, and affects the entity instigating the action or examination. In brief, reflexivity refers to circular relationships between cause and effect.  (Wiki entry)

Is this an answer to the criticism of Structualism? Found this through Soros’ investment theory/observation:

Soros argues that such transitions in the fundamentals of the economy are typically marked by disequilibrium rather than equilibrium, and that the conventional economic theory of the market (the ‘efficient market hypothesis‘) does not apply in these situations. Soros has popularized the concepts of dynamic disequilibrium, static disequilibrium, and near-equilibrium conditions.

Reflexivity is based on three main ideas:

  1. Reflexivity is best observed under special conditions where investor bias grows and spreads throughout the investment arena. Examples of factors that may give rise to this bias include (a) equity leveraging or (b) the trend-following habits of speculators.
  2. Reflexivity appears intermittently since it is most likely to be revealed under certain conditions; i.e., the equilibrium process’s character is best considered in terms of probabilities.
  3. Investors’ observation of and participation in the capital markets may at times influence valuations AND fundamental conditions or outcomes.

The last point can be found in “A Demon of Our Own Design“. The first point may be explained by information asymmetry and/or the game theory.

I am a bit confused: if this is so obvious, how come I have never heard of it before?

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Jul 14 2008

The Michelle-Barak Cover in the New Yorker

Published by Forager under the new yorker, to be refined

newyorker_cover_michele_barak_obama_whitehouse_satireJust got the news that Barak Obama didn’t like the cover in the upcoming New Yorker magazine.

When I first saw the cartoon, I didn’t get it either. For example, I didn’t understand why Michelle carries an AK-47 over her shoulder? I thought it was a reference to BO’s recent comment after the DC hand gun ruling.

Then I read it was supposed to be a satire. Oh, now I get it … Apparently, this is an instance of “acquired enlightenment”. Now think of it, this is also a good example of how a subject (me) is part of message construction.

By insider’s standard, this cover has all the NYKr trademark elements: cryptic, edgy and funny. But to call it a satire, it’s supposed to be ridiculously off-base. The fact that so many people are so upset–not least the Senator himself–about this cover suggests what it depicts is not that ridiculous to a sufficiently large audience after all.new-yorker-halloween-chenny-cover

I was equally confused until I read the accompanying text explaining (a la Elaine in Seinfeld) what it supposed to mean. The fact that I think it is funny and is a satire tells more about me than about the cartoon, however. In other words, it is funny only because I am ready to accept the message (i.e. it is a satire, depicting something irrelevantly funny).

Overall, I love the New Yorker’s covers. If there is a case of too many good thing, this is it. I like so many of them that it is hard to name just a few that is peerless. For example this Halloween lantern in Dick Cheney’s image. There is NO contraversy in this one at all.

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Jun 19 2008

Reading Hannah Arendt

Published by Forager under book, reviews, to be refined

Book: The Origins of Totalitarianism

To put it harshly, The Origins of Totalitarianism is more like a political manifesto than a scientific thesis. The locus of Arendt’s work is the Holocaust hence the applicability and reasoning are rather questionable.

Arendt is not just any Jewish survivor. A student and a lover of the preeminent 20th century philosopher, Martin Heidegger, Arendt had rightfully consider herself a member of the upper echelon of the the Western civilization before, suddenly, she was nearly cannibalized by it. Therefore, for Arendt, the most pressing question for her was “what has gone so wrong”?

In pursuit of an answer to this question, Arendt chooses to forgo the cultural and historical peculiarity of the German nation but to extrapolate a general condition which she argues could forster a monsterous extremist regime.

A central character in her definition of Totalitarianism is the movement’s global aspiration. The existence of an ideology aiming for world domination (quotes needed) is a prerequisit. Although such a framework explains well Nazism and Communism, it fails to explain racial or ethnic triggered mass hysteria. Even today, as what used to be unthinkable in America (p 420 a country least exposed to mass psychology) becomes legal (e.g. warrantless surveillance, suspension of habeas corpus, etc.), what the silent majority buy into is not a desire of world domination or salvation but “homeland” security.

Does Totalitarianism exist as one of the “-ism” of the 20th century? Or even, is there a “sin test”–I know it when I see it–of Totalitarianism? If mass murder of the innocent is a inevitable outcome of a Totalitarian regime, as Arendt suggests, the evidence in the late 20th century offers little support–one can hardly say that what happened in Rwanda and Bosnia were perpetrated by totalitarian regimes.

In other words, mass murder cannot happen unless the entire society goes along with a few fanatics. In her book, the chapter on “the classless society” is the one that I can relate to the most: fanaticism is possible when there is a breakdown of social orders (class not in the traditional Marxist sense). But even a chaotic social order is a necessary condition, it is clearly not a sufficient one. For Industrialization and Republicanization (French style) were both traumatic events in history yet not all societies lived through them became radical as did the German, Russian and Chinese nations. In France, the Dreyfus case–as extensively discussed by Arendt–is a case in point: there was clearly a suffocating antisemitic sentiment at the beginning, but it fizzled as quickly as it started (quotes needed).

Therefore, given similar social conditions, given that political and psychological manipulation is innate to human beings as there are demagogues in every historical period in every society, why some nations degerated into totalitarianism, but some did not?

Or, to put the question differently, if there exists a transcendent Totalitarian model, why did it not manifest itself every where, every time? Arendt herself in the 1950 preface says that she wrote the book “out of the conviction that it should be possible to discover the hidden mechanics by which all traditional elements of our political and spiritual world were dissolved into a conglomeration”. Yet even after she seems to have identified many, if not all, of those mechanics, she has yet to convince me that the existence of those mechanics along is enough to breed Totalitarianism.

After the Holocaust, man finds itself still capable of watching massacres unfold in Rwanda and Balkan, and mass hysteria reign in North Korea and, most recently, South Africa. It appears that if history is of any guidance, what Arendt labels as “hidden mechanics” are not that “hidden” compared to something deeper underlying every holocaust.

My observation is that the likelihood of Totalitarianism is negatively related to the liberal tradition of a society. The liberal tradition refers to not only the depth but also the breadth of its societal penatration. In other words, a society that features a clan of intelligentsia and a huge disparity is as illiberal as one that features an undereducated mass.

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