Years of Poems and Spirits

After finishing the last entry, just thought of something:

Is there a relationship between technology prowess and exchange rate? Or is there something called technology exchange rate?

My guesses/hypothesis:
If there is a large gap in technologies b/w two economies (e.g. a poor and a rich country), what will happen?
1. The poor country buys technology: it must be certain that the return on this investment (either for domestic consumption or for export) must be sufficient to justify the investment. In a model F(K,L,A) where A is the dominent factor, this does not make sense: because the poor country has no advantage in either K or L. In other words, everything the poor can do with the technology, the rich can do it too.
2. The rich country brings in technology through investmen–a sensible solution. This will generate upward pressure on the poor countriy’ currency.
3. If there is a spillover effect from the technology input, the poor catchs up with the rich, then there should be an upward pressure on the rich country’s currency.

The question:
To what extent there is a clear negative correlation between technology/productivity gap and exchange rate (from the tech. deficit party point of view)? For example, can this hypothesis be used to explain the fact that euro has been gaining on dollar? Or to predict that the petro currency will lose ground to dollar if the oil countries now can have truly independent production?

Just read a fascinating article on WSJ: Oil Companies May See an Ebb In Profit Gusher.

Here are some points I got from reading this article:
1. An example of state’s role in economic affairs. Or why state/sovereignty still matters in globalized world?
2. What happens to oil capital? There must be a major reconfiguration:
a. Even if foreign capital is cheaper than domestic capital, if oil demand remains so high, the temptation is to forgo foreign capital and having the state to monetize oil production
b. If that were to happen, return on capital may dinimish overtime for foreign oil companies
c. Will competing sources of capital increase the likelihood of inflation?

Excerption from the article:
But those record profits are likely to recede in the years ahead — even if oil prices don’t — as oil-producing nations increasingly demand a bigger share of the wealth.

In the past, oil companies typically generated profits by taking on the risk and expense of finding new underground sources of oil or natural gas. In return, they got an ownership stake in new fields …

Three-quarters of global oil reserves are under the control of increasingly capable state-owned oil companies,

As a result, the major oil companies are being forced to operate less like wildcatting entrepreneurs and more like service companies.

Gazprom subsequently invited the Western oil companies to participate as technical advisers, without an equity stake in the project or the potential for a windfall profit. Discussions are continuing.

On top of the tougher demands, Western oil companies are getting into bidding wars for the limited prospects that are open to them.