Years of Poems and Spirits

Quote of the day:
“The probability is 50% and possibly higher …”
–Interview with Alan Greenspan by WSJ Real Time Economics

What is the probable target of a probability? Doesn’t that sound like a derivative of some sort?

Greenspan was talking about recession. A few very interesting points:
1. At age of 80, he is still doing research on economic issues, “I’ve put together a data system in which I analyze both new and existing home sales by means of financing.”
2. Sub-prime mortgage is completely out of the market. Hence, Greenspan sees the bottom of subprime-trigger mortgage crisis.
3. “Recessions don’t happen smoothly. They are usually signaled by a discontinuity in the market place, and the data of recent weeks could very well be characterized in that manner.”

Margainal groups’ role is negatively related to the closeness of an election.

A headline prompted me thinking, what happens if a marginal figure, e.g. Louis Farrakhan, helps to decide the outcome of the primary?

Can I describe the life cycle of a marginal group as:
If a election is really close, marginal groups play a disproportional role;
Thus leads to the perception of their enlarged status;
Then they play a more active role in legislation and general politics;
Finally, the mainstream group feel marginalized because of the perception of “special interests” and there is a strong reaction.

Examples:
Religious, ethnic, social groups (teachers, nurses and the like who has a public role)