Years of Poems and Spirits

Quote of the day:
“The probability is 50% and possibly higher …”
–Interview with Alan Greenspan by WSJ Real Time Economics

What is the probable target of a probability? Doesn’t that sound like a derivative of some sort?

Greenspan was talking about recession. A few very interesting points:
1. At age of 80, he is still doing research on economic issues, “I’ve put together a data system in which I analyze both new and existing home sales by means of financing.”
2. Sub-prime mortgage is completely out of the market. Hence, Greenspan sees the bottom of subprime-trigger mortgage crisis.
3. “Recessions don’t happen smoothly. They are usually signaled by a discontinuity in the market place, and the data of recent weeks could very well be characterized in that manner.”

Margainal groups’ role is negatively related to the closeness of an election.

A headline prompted me thinking, what happens if a marginal figure, e.g. Louis Farrakhan, helps to decide the outcome of the primary?

Can I describe the life cycle of a marginal group as:
If a election is really close, marginal groups play a disproportional role;
Thus leads to the perception of their enlarged status;
Then they play a more active role in legislation and general politics;
Finally, the mainstream group feel marginalized because of the perception of “special interests” and there is a strong reaction.

Examples:
Religious, ethnic, social groups (teachers, nurses and the like who has a public role)

I know I should have worked on school works, finding a job or event catching up with blogs … but not. I spent much of the weekend fixated in front of TV (very bad behavior, I know).

But this weekend’s NFL playoff games were really good, really entertaining. If Sat. day was all about worthiness and the display of power, today (Sun.) is about redemption and will. First the Chargers upset a listless Colts team with a group of subs, then the Giants spilled their guts to beat the Cowboys.

After the game, the Giants defensive guys said they were so tired they could barely left the locker room. And I believe that. Seeing the front group chasing Romo like a chicken in the second half, I wondered how long they could last.

The most memorable moment came in the final 50 seconds of the game when Romo marched the Boys down to the 25 yard line. The crowd was getting restless and anxious. Then there was an injury timeout. I could see the Giants players standing on the field as if ready to collapse at any moment.

As the game was about to resume, the stadium started to blast music–forgot what it was but sounded like the theme song in “Chariot of Fire”: it was the kind of uplifting and pumping piece. I saw the Cowboys getting ready, but the Giants guys were still standing there motionless! Their hands on waists and heads on chests. It was really a weird scene. I thought they would be done for for sure. But somehow they willed themself into a victory.

Awesome games!