Oct 14 2008
最近读的几本中文书笔记备录：
1. 《刚鉴易知录》（唐史）：初唐无聊，中唐故事多，晚唐最有意思：极富戏剧性，像武侠小说，爱不释手。问题：为什么潘镇“割据”而不“独立”？什么使中国难以分裂？
2. 《剑桥中国隋唐史》（崔瑞德，费正清，三联）：关于陈寅恪的评价，“陇西-山东”框架，私铸货币和通货膨胀，中央管理货币的尝试
3. 薄一波的《若干重大历史事件的回顾》（人民出版社）：毛泽东的霸道，刚愎自用和小气：十五天从反右到反左。刘少奇的“走狗式”（李斯，范蠡）的下场：桃源经验，“三分天灾，七分人祸”，党内民主制度不健全，西楼会议，七千人大会？ 另：关于毛对知识分子的怀疑和憎恨，见李锐的文章：毛泽东与反右派斗争 大多从毛的原话，原著中解读引证。
4. 《政治儒学》（蒋庆）： 踩在学术和博客的边缘，文章罗嗦冗长 。读上去感觉好像一个面壁的愚儒在振振有词地证明皇帝的新衣确实存在。唯一可取的是第三章，儒学与民主政治，二者平等而不兼容。不可用西学的概念来解构儒学。联想：中国的“政治”和西学的“政治”是一个概念吗？
Oct 14 2008
Leaving tomorrow for Japan. Just some thoughts to write down …
1. I think the financial crisis is about to be over. Once the extra liquidity is taken out of the system and excess leverage is held in check, we will go back to the basics. The production function comes down to K and L (capital and labor). When both are healthy and in balance, I think we are fine. The real depression will only come when natural resources becomes the bottle neck.
2. The British rescue package (i.e. injecting cash to banks) is a superior solution to the original American one. Bernanke kept saying “price discovery”, which I interpret as to let market figure out asset’s true price. However, the original package ran contrary to this principle: it required the government to buy up assets (instead of letting banks to pick sellers and set prices).
3. Although commercial banks are saviors of the day, the “animal instinct” of investors will again raise the profile of ibanks. No wonder Goldman Sachs decides to apply the NY state bank charter, instead of the national one: it doesn’t care about retail banking at all.
4. Japanese Yen and Chinese RMB will likely appreciate. Since Japan cannot lower rates any more, it will have to absorb the impact of increased domestic debt by other nations (produced by the bailouts). China may lower the rates but I believe it is under greater inflationary pressure than everyone else. Therefore, it may have to raise rates or appreciate RMB.
5. For the developed nations, it is easy to release money to the market in unison. But it is going to be a lot harder to take money out of circulation once the economy improves. To be more precise, since nations recover at different speed, some may need to restore monetary discipline earlier than others. However, because the financial market is globalized, the liquidity excess may soon return (or linger?).
6. Is Moral Victory is now called “Nobel Prize”? The Swedish Academy shouldn’t be playing God. If Krugman gets an “early” pass, then Gore and DaLai got an easy one.